Forecasting is a tool used in business and industry to predict the future behaviour of customers. One of the most popular statistical models of forecasting is the so-called damped trend model.

Giacomo Sbrana (NEOMA Business School) and Andrea Silvestrini (Bank of Italy) use a real macroeconomic data set with 270 one-time series and covering almost 50 economies, to propose an approach that might outperform the standard one. A simple, rigorous and easy to use tool that can help the practice of predicting future data.

Learn more

Forecasting with the damped trend model using the structural approach, Giacomo Sbrana, Andrea Silvestrini. International Journal of Production Economics, Volume 226, August 2020, 107654.